What are the odds of rolling a Yahtzee on the first roll?

The probability of rolling five of a kind on a single roll is exactly 6/7776 = 1 in 1296, or about 0.077%. A category-focused keep-the-largest-group strategy across all three rolls gives roughly 4.6%.

Are the two-roll and three-roll values universally optimal?

No. They are category-focused strategy references based on keeping dice that advance the selected category. Real optimal play may change with the scorecard, bonus state, joker rules and competing categories. First-roll favorable-outcome counts are the exact category probabilities shown here.

Does a Large Straight have better first-roll odds than a Full House?

No. A Large Straight (1-2-3-4-5 or 2-3-4-5-6) has 2 x 5! = 240 favorable outcomes out of 7776, while a Full House has 300 favorable outcomes — so a Full House is actually slightly more likely on the first roll.

Does this account for joker rules?

No. The probabilities shown are for standard Yahtzee rules where each category requires its specific combination. Joker rules (using Yahtzee as a wild) are not modeled here.

What does "1 in X" mean?

It is the reciprocal of the displayed per-turn probability. Under identical independent repeated turns it is the long-run mean turns per success, not a guarantee that success occurs by turn X.

Yahtzee Odds Calculator

Select a category and roll limit to compare exact one-roll odds with fixed-strategy multi-roll references, then calculate at-least-one success across repeated turns.

Select Category

Number of Rolls

Repeated Independent Turns

Chance of at least one success over 1–1,000,000 identical turns.

Selected Category

Yahtzee

Five of the same number on all five dice.

Key Fact

At least one success

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Assumes each complete turn is independent and uses the selected roll-limit probability.

Favorable outcomes (1 roll)

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out of 7,776

Total possible rolls

7,776

6⁵ combinations

Example Winning Combinations

Summary

This calculator separates exact first-roll category counts from multi-roll strategy references. Select a category and roll limit, then enter a number of independent turns to estimate the chance of succeeding at least once. Multi-roll values assume the fixed keep-and-reroll strategy represented by the table; actual scorecard strategy, joker rules and house rules can change decisions and odds.

How it works

Select the Yahtzee category you want to roll.
The calculator instantly shows the probability of achieving it on the first roll.
It then shows a fixed-strategy reference through roll 2 and roll 3.
Probabilities are displayed as both percentages and "1 in X" odds.
Enter repeated independent turns to calculate the chance of at least one success.
Use the breakdown panel to see which dice combinations count toward each category.

Use cases

Understand how rare a Yahtzee (five of a kind) really is.
Compare the difficulty of scoring a Large Straight vs. a Full House.
Settle debates about Yahtzee strategy with hard probability data.
Learn which categories to target first for maximum scoring efficiency.
Teach probability concepts using a familiar dice game.
Analyze house-rule variants to see how they change the odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

Last updated: 2026-09-16 · Reviewed by Nham Vu