What is xG (Expected Goals)?

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical measure that estimates the probability a shot will result in a goal, based on historical data for shots taken from similar positions and circumstances. A value of 0.2 means roughly 1 in 5 shots from that situation end up as goals on average.

How accurate is this model?

This tool uses a simplified logistic regression with publicly documented coefficients for distance, angle, and shot type. It captures the main factors but omits goalkeeper position, defender pressure, and passing sequence. Use it for education and approximation, not professional scouting.

Why do headers have lower xG than foot shots?

On average, headers convert at a lower rate than foot shots from the same position. Heading accuracy is harder to control, and headers often come from crosses that defenders can read. The model applies a penalty multiplier consistent with public xG research.

What distance and angle give the highest xG?

The sweet spot is around 6–8 m from goal at a 90° (straight-on) angle. Close-range shots from directly in front of goal regularly produce xG values above 0.4.

Can I switch between meters and yards?

Yes. Use the unit toggle next to the distance input. The model converts internally so xG values remain consistent regardless of which unit you use.

Soccer xG Helper (Expected Goals)

Estimate the xG value of a shot based on distance, angle, and shot type using a simplified logistic-regression model.

Shot Parameters

Distance from goal

1 m 40 m

Shot angle 45°

0° (byline) 90° (straight on)

Shot type

Expected Goals (xG)

—

Enter values above

0.00 (no chance) 0.50 1.00 (certain goal)

Factor Breakdown

Calculate a shot to see factor contributions.

Shot Location (top view)

Summary

Enter shot distance from goal, the horizontal angle, and shot type (open play, header, or direct free kick) to get an Expected Goals (xG) probability. The model uses coefficients derived from public xG research to give realistic values between 0 and 1.

How it works

Enter the shot distance from the center of the goal line in meters (or yards — toggle the unit).
Set the shot angle: 90° is a straight-on shot from directly in front; 0° is from the byline.
Choose the shot type: open play foot shot, header, or direct free kick.
The model applies logistic regression coefficients to output an xG probability from 0 to 1.
Read the xG value, its descriptive label, and the breakdown of each factor's contribution.

Use cases

Evaluate whether a player should have scored given the quality of the chance.
Compare xG across multiple shots to assess finishing efficiency over a season.
Teach football analytics concepts with a hands-on, interactive model.
Quickly estimate shot quality during match analysis without proprietary data.

Frequently Asked Questions

Last updated: 2026-06-19 · Reviewed by Nham Vu